Early voting has started in the Lone Star State and what many members of the establishment within the Republican Party thought was going to be a routine primary race for a U.S. Senate seat has turned into a good old-fashioned political brawl that has Republicans In Name Only (RINOs) sweating bullets, as it appears they could end up losing even more of their grip over the party.
The race is centered around incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn, who has already served four terms in his current position and is seeking a fifth. However, instead of sliding right into the party’s nomination for the seat, Cornyn is finding himself in a competitive three-way fight against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Congressman Wesley Hunt.
As of this writing, none of the three candidates have polled above 50%, which has led many analysts to believe the March 3 primary will ultimately head to a runoff on May 26. Ross Hunt, a GOP strategist, stated that Democrats, who were once confident they could flip the deep red state blue have come to see that’s not likely to happen.
According to Trending Politics News, the analyst pointed out that Democrats have entered several past election cycles with a high level of optimism, but ultimately fell short when it came to votes counted. “Folks who have been paying attention to Texas politics have all seen this movie before,” Hunt went on to say. “All that could change if Ken Paxton is the nominee. If Paxton is on the ballot as the Republican nominee, that definitely gives the Democrats some oxygen they wouldn’t otherwise have.”
Paxton is enjoying a narrow lead over Cornyn, 32% to 28%, with Hunt coming in at around 19%. The data indicates that none of the three candidates are likely to have an outright majority, which will then force a runoff primary election. “If Ken Paxton is the nominee, we could well experience a massacre and the first Democrat elected since 1994 in the state of Texas,” Cornyn remarked during a speech addressed to supporters in Fort Worth.
Cornyn’s comments reflect a major concern among establishment Republicans who are afraid that Paxton’s controversial past while serving in office could give Democrats a second wind and force the GOP to drop a substantial amount of cash to defend a seat they feel should be a given. A memo from the National Republican Senatorial Committee has been making the rounds, attempting to argue that Cornyn is “the only Republican candidate who reliably wins a general election matchup” and that the Lone Star State “cannot afford to be a gamble” in a high-stakes midterm election.
Internal polling data cited by Republican operatives says that Cornyn has a sizable lead over Democratic candidates that is greater than Paxton does in hypothetical matchups. Paxton either runs even or comes in slightly behind in certain scenarios. Democrats are keeping a close eye on the primary.
"*" indicates required fields
In their own primary race, Rep. Jasmine Crockett, also a polarizing figure, along with Rep. James Talarico, are having a battle for the nomination, with Crockett enjoying greater benefits due to name recognition than Talarico who is looked at as a more appealing option for moderates.
The one major deciding factor that could push a GOP candidate over the edge is the backing of President Donald Trump, who has not yet announced who he is supporting in the Senate race. The president has previously stated that he likes all three individuals vying for the position. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has cautioned President Trump about the high stakes involved in the race, while Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) has raised questions about why the GOP doesn’t rally behind Cornyn.
Hunt stated that every day early voting continues without an endorsement for Cornyn by Trump could prove to be a disadvantage for the incumbent. He made the case that an endorsement from the president would be a huge benefit for any of the candidates, but would have a huge impact on Cornyn. Paxton, on the other hand, has worked hard to position himself as a strong MAGA ally and has emphasized the victories he’s had in the past.
While Paxton was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on charges of corruption, he was later acquitted by the state Senate. His campaign team has stated that GOP voters are standing firmly in his corner. Hunt then slammed national Republicans for focusing their efforts on Cornyn, referring to their strategy as a misguided investment in a senator who has already served for 24 years.
Featured Image: screenshot from embedded video