According to a new Manhattan Institute poll, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is leading the imcumbant Kathy Hochul (D) 43-42% in the 2026 New York gubernatorial race, with 6% undecided and 9% third-party. When paired against Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, Stefanik leads by 6 points amid higher uncertainty (20%).
Reacting to this situation, Polling chief Jesse Arm noted that it was New York’s most competitive race in decades. According to GOP Chair Ed Cox, she plans to announce her candidacy soon and intends to build on the 2022 gains, including flipping three House seats and Lee Zeldin’s near-win (46.7% vs. Hochul’s 53.1%).
Reacting to the stunning news. Jesse Arm, the Manhattan Institute polling chief, said, “While more than a year remains until Election Day, these findings underscore that New York’s next statewide race could be its most competitive in decades.”
Building on this point, Ed Cox, the New York GOP Chair, stated, “She got very good advice from [former New York governor] Pataki. It was ‘don’t cloud the local elections,” adding, “She just doesn’t want to get mixed up in the local elections, let those happen, let the candidates carry that, let them be highlighted, and then after that she will declare.”
As we reported, in a fiery exchange, Rep. Elise Stefanik blasted Gov. Kathy Hochul on New York’s sanctuary policies. Begging her comments, Rep. Elise Stefani asked, “Governor Hochul, on your first day in office, you signed Executive Order One. Is that correct?”
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After Hochul confirmed, she continued her questions. “It is the policy of the state that state officers or employees shall not disclose information to federal immigration authorities for the purpose of federal civil immigration enforcement,” she quoted from an official document.
Using a specific example, Stefanik asked, “Do you know who Sakir Akkan is? You should as the Governor of New York State. Do you know?” Bitterly, Governor Kathy Hochul responded, “Refresh my recollection.”
Seeing an opportunity to strike, the Republican pointed out, “He was an illegal migrant in New York. And do you know what crime he committed in addition to being here illegally?” After Hochul declined, she continued: “You do not. This was widely reported. He found a 15-year-old girl, threatened her with a metal pole, and told her to get into the back seat of his car. He took her clothes off and he violently r*ped her in Albany, New York.”
Additionally, she pointed to the case of Sebastian Zepeta-Calil, who committed a horrific crime. Despite Hichul failing to recognize him, Stefanik continued, “Well, this is an illegal migrant in New York because of your sanctuary state policies—He found a sleeping woman on the subway, lit her on fire and burned her alive.”
Concluding her comments, the soon-to-be gubernatorial candidate said, “This is in Hochul’s New York, and as I’m sure you are aware, and I’ll remind you that ICE issued an order to detain this violent criminal, but that was rejected by New York officials due to sanctuary state laws.”