New data shows that Chuck Schumer and the rest of the DC Democrats may be headed for disaster in the 2026 midterm elections, with CNN analyst Harry Enten revealing that the Dems could lose multiple seats to the GOP in the midterms, signaling a major shift from some of the key elections of the last decade.
For background, on July 16, 2025, CNN analyst Harry Enten exposed some serious chinks in the Democrats’ armor, using new data to confirm that the Dems are far behind their typical pace in terms of the generic congressional ballot for the 2026 midterms. Enten went on to say that based on the data, the Democrats “have not come anywhere close” to getting a leg up on the GOP.
Explaining the data to his co-host, Enten said, “Look at where we are now. Democrats are ahead, but by just two points.” He continued, “Look at where Democrats were already ahead in 2017; they were behind by seven points. How about 2005 on the generic congressional…ahead by seven points, ahead by seven points, and now they’re only ahead by two points.”
Clarifying, Enten explained that the Dems’ lead “is less than half of where it was in either 2017 or 2005 in July of those years, the year before the midterm election.” He added, “Yes, Donald Trump may be unpopular, but Democrats have not come anywhere close to sealing the deal at this particular point.”
Building on his point, Enten revealed that based on the data, Republicans have “more pickup chances at plus 12,” explaining, “So, it’s not just on the generic ballot where Democrats are behind their 2017 and 2005 pace. It’s actually when it comes [to] seat-by-seat, you see that at least at this particular point, Republicans actually have more net pickup opportunities. This doesn’t look anything like those…elections back in 2006.”
Summing up the data, Enten said that it was clear that the upcoming election cycle “looks a lot more like 2024 than it does…either 2018 or 2006, and so, of course, Republicans actually held onto the House back in 2024.” He added, “Will it happen this time around? We’ll just have to wait and see. But for anyone who’s writing the Republican House’s political obituaries, hold the phone.”
Posting the segment on his X account, Enten concluded, “Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle.” He added, “Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt.” Enten’s post was flooded with comments from conservatives expressing optimism about the GOP’s chances in the midterm elections, along with plenty of roasting of the Democrats.
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In response to the data showcased by Enten, the X user DJ_Pants wrote, “Yah, the Dems as a whole are just terrible. They stand for nothing except being slightly better than the absolute worst.” Another commenter jokingly told Enten, “Now do CNN’s ratings from 2006, 2018, and now.”
Watch Enten’s analysis:
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