While nothing is ever assured, reams of good news for conservatives have continued to pour in from the longtime deep-blue state of New Jersey, where it is looking increasingly likely that the Trump-backed GOP candidate, Jack Ciattarelli, will be able to pull off a massive upset victory against the Democratic candidate, U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill.
Such was revealed most recently by new data that was collected and released by Decision Desk data analyst Michael Pruser. The data shows that Republicans are managing to dramatically increase their likely turnout rate and pick up a sizeable number of new voter registrations.
So, though New Jersey unfortunately remains a state where the long-running Democratic Party apparatus still has an overwhelming registered voter lead over the GOP, right now it is Republicans who have the energy advantage in what has become a neck-in-neck gubernatorial race.
Revealing his new data on X, Mr. Pruser explained that right now Republicans have a higher turnout rate than Democrats so far in the mail-in part of election, but Democrats, because of their overwhelming raw numbers advantage, still have a sizeable voter lead.
He began, “The New Jersey Vote By Mail file is in for 10/02. Sticking with the current trends, Republicans expand their turnout rate edge while Democrats pick up raw returns. 🔴Republican Return Rate – 15.26% 🔵Democratic Return Rate – 13.26% 🔵DEM Raw Vote Edge – 42,044.”
Continuing, he noted that Republicans are expected to continue expanding their returns, saying, “In today’s report, Republicans had more single-use requests than Democrats (first time). No surprises in any of this so far, the expectation is still that Democrats will begin returning mail at a higher rate (R’s will still expand their edge the next few reports) and eventually end absentee tracking w/ a raw return edge of roughly 240,000 votes.”
While that is not great news for Republicans in that Democrats still have an advantage in total voters and are expected to end the mail-in ballot season with a lead, it is good news in that it shows that Republican energy, and in that it shows Republicans have an advantage over where they were even during the 2024 election.
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Noting as much, conservative X personality Eric Daugherty explained, citing Pruser’s new data and data from 2024, “🚨 BREAKING: For the first time since NEW JERSEY mail-in voting began for 2025 governor, Republicans requested MORE single-election ballots than Democrats – a measure of R enthusiasm. 🟥 Mail is +7 points MORE RED than this point in 2024.”
Daugherty added, after reviewing the data, that this race remains one Republicans can win, saying, “Republicans can be happy about that shift from 2024 and their RATE of voting – but Democrats are picking up a small amount of ground over 24 hours. SURGE TO THE POLLS, this race remains winnable for Jack Ciattarelli.”
That is particularly true given that the election is close to neck in neck between the two candidates, so a major turnout advantage like the GOP appears to have could lead to a major victory. Noting the razor-thin margins of the race, the “End Wokeness” X account said, “New Jersey is 100% in play this year Emerson (A+ rated pollster): 🔵 Sherrill: 43% 🔴 Ciattarelli: 43% NR (2021’s best pollster): 🔴 Ciattarelii 46% (+1) 🔵 Sherrill 45% Everyone in NJ, make a plan to vote. If you are still not registered, it isn’t too late. For Charlie.”
Watch footage from the event where Ciattarelli was endorsed by a longtime Democrat mayor who flipped red here: