According to recent polling data, former President Donald Trump has a substantial lead over Joe Biden in several major swing states ahead of the presidential election this fall. The projections look so dire for Biden in some states that even CNN is sounding the alarm, labeling the polling an “absolute disaster.”
Research from The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Donald Trump leads Biden among likely voters in five key swing states. Reportedly, the lead is most pronounced in the Sun Belt, where Trump leads Nevada by 13 points, Georgia by 9 points, and Arizona by 6 points.
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten covered the battleground polling during a recent segment on the network, where he discussed the implications of the data. He particularly noted the “huge lead” Trump holds in Nevada, where a Democrat hasn’t lost in two decades.
“Frankly, for the Joe Biden campaign. These numbers are an absolute disaster. The smallest lead is in Arizona for Donald Trump, he’s up six. Look at this, 9 in Georgia. 13 in Nevada, my goodness gracious, My God. That is a huge lead. No Democrat has lost that state since John Kerry lost it back in 2004,” Enten said.
However, Trump’s lead over Biden was more muted in the Great Lakes battleground states, where they could fall within the margin of error. Enten claimed that Biden “can work” with the results from these three states, where he even leads by one point in Michigan.
He continued, “How about these Great Lakes battleground states? This is something that the Joe Biden campaign can work with look, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump up three but that’s well within the margin of error. Wisconsin, Donald Trump up one well within the margin of error, and actually a Joe Biden leave well within the margin of error. A point here this they can work with the Joe Biden campaign.”
The data reporter highlighted that the Trump campaign is undoubtedly pleased by the polling results. “This the Donald campaign, Donald Trump campaign, absolutely loves and it looks like a lot of the other polling other Sunbelt battleground as well,” he added.
When asked what the drivers behind the major shift in these states since the last election, which Biden won, Enten explained that the demographics behind Trump’s support are becoming much more diverse. He stated, “Yeah, the Trump coalition is changing. That’s basically what’s cooking here.”
“Back in 2020 84% of the Trump campaigns of the Trump coalition was White look where it is now it’s 78%. The nonwhite portion of the Trump coalition it was 13% in 2020. Look at this now. It’s 19%. So the Trump coalition is becoming more diverse and of course those Sunbelt battleground states are more diverse than the Great Lake battleground states,” he said.
Drawing an ultimate conclusion on the implications behind the data, Enten claimed that the polling data suggests Trump has a strong chance of winning the election. “It’s advantage Donald Trump, but he’s not over the 270 mark just yet….So it’s advantage Donald Trump but Joe Biden does at this point have a path to 270.”
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