According to recent polling data, former President Donald Trump leads Joe Biden in all seven key swing states. Based on the findings from Emerson Polling and The Hill surveys, Biden is losing to Trump in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.
The research conducted by Emerson and The Hill examined a hypothetical outcome in the key states assuming a Trump-Biden-RFK Jr-West-Stein matchup. The data found that Trump leads Nevada by 10 points, North Carolina by 9 points, Arizona by 6 points, Pennsylvania by 5 points, Wisconsin by 4 points, and Michigan by 3 points.
The polling data paints an interesting picture, suggesting that Trump’s lead only grows when additional third-party candidates are added to the scenario. It has been speculated that the presence of third-party candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., would disproportionately hurt Trump more than President Biden. However, this hypothesis is not substantiated by the pols.
Moreover, other surveys, such as one conducted by Bloomberg News and Morning Consult, also concluded that Trump was leading Biden in these critical swing states, both in a head-to-head scenario and with third-party candidates in the race. The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey reported:
Arizona: Trump 47 / Biden 44 — Trump +3
Georgia: Trump 49 / Biden 41 — Trump +8
Michigan: Trump 47 / Biden 42 — Trump +5
Nevada: Trump 48 / Biden 40 — Trump +8
North Carolina: Trump 49 / Biden 39 — Trump +10
Pennsylvania: Trump 48 / Biden 45 — Trump +3
Wisconsin: Trump 49 / Biden 44 — Trump +5…
Arizona: Trump 43 / Biden 35 / Kennedy 10 — Trump +8
Georgia: Trump 44 / Biden 37 / Kennedy 8 — Trump +7
Michigan: Trump 43 / Biden 37 / Kennedy 8 — Trump +6
Nevada: Trump 43 / Biden 31 / Kennedy 12 — Trump +12
North Carolina: Trump 45 / Biden 32 / Kennedy 9 — Trump +13
Pennsylvania: Trump 43 / Biden 40 / Kennedy 7 — Trump +3
Wisconsin: Trump 43 / Biden 35 / Kennedy 10 — Trump +8
Donald Trump has continually called out the weaknesses and failures of the Biden administration ahead of the 2024 election, focusing on hot-button issues such as the ongoing border crisis. The former president recently shared a message on social media, slamming Biden for allowing an “invasion” that is actively “destroying” the nation.
Trump pointed out the horrific murder of 22-year-old Laken Riley, who died at the hands of an illegal immigrant. In his message, he maintained that under his leadership, the border would secured “immediately” on “day one.”
“Crooked Joe Biden’s Border INVASION is destroying our country and killing our citizens! The horrible murder of 22-year-old Laken Riley at the University of Georgia should have NEVER happened! The monster who took her life illegally entered our Country in 2022…and then was released AGAIN by Radical Democrats in New York after injuring a CHILD!! When I am your President, we will immediately Seal the Border, Stop the Invasion, and on Day One, we will begin the largest deportation operation of illegal CRIMINALS in American History! May God Bless Laken Riley and her family!!! Our prayers are with you!” the leading GOP candidate said.
Another major issue Biden’s reelection campaign faces is the increased scrutiny surrounding his physical and mental fitness. Throughout his term, Biden has continuously had public slip-ups, both verbally and physically, causing many Americans to doubt the president’s faculties. Adding insult to injury, Special Counsel Robert Hur expressed concerns regarding Biden’s age and memory, validating widespread skepticism.
One thing that could help Trump is if he chooses a VP who helps him unite the MAGA base and more traditional Republicans, particularly if that VP pick helps him win over suburban women to the Republican cause. Watch Kari Lake discuss what he’s looking for here:
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