According to the results of a recent poll, former President Donald Trump may win a Democratic stronghold state in New England. A poll conducted by Praecones Analytica and the New Hampshire Journal suggested that New Hampshire may vote red this election cycle as Trump leads Harris in the state 50.2 percent to 49.8 percent.
The survey, which took place between October 24th and the 26th, surveyed 622 registered voters. Notably, if the results of the poll are accurate, it would be the first time New Hampshire has supported a Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush in 2000. The 11th-hour shift in support in the blue state follows trends of Trump gaining momentum in many of the battleground states as well.
The American Tribune recently reported on other coverage of Trump’s performance across the nation, where he is gaining substantial momentum in swing states. According to a prominent Democratic pollster, Doug Schoen, support for Kamala Harris in the “blue wall” battleground states is deteriorating and looking like it will swing in favor of Trump.
Schoen said, “The so-called blue wall of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is eroding for the Democrats.” He continued, “There is a level of disorganization on the ground, and incoherence, vis-a-vis the messaging that is clear, and what I’m picking up is that the Harris campaign really doesn’t have a closing message or strategy as we, I think, saw in Bret Baier’s interview with Kamala Harris.”
The renowned pollster continued, “And there is not a clear sense as to what she’s going to do different than Joe Biden, which, as you point out, close to 60% of America, has made them feel worse off. She hasn’t articulated a coherent plan, and it’s, frankly, perfectly logical that she would say, different times, different circumstances, different plan. Here’s what I’m doing, here’s what Trump’s doing. Vote for me. She hasn’t done it, and I don’t have a sense, Laura, that she’s going to.”
Furthermore, famous pollster Nate Silver also recently expressed that his “gut” was telling him that Trump would win the election. “So OK, I’ll tell you,” he explained. “My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.”
Silver further explained why some polling may not be entirely accurate, underestimating support for Donald Trump. “Nonresponse bias can be a hard problem to solve. Response rates to even the best telephone polls are in the single digits — in some sense, the people who choose to respond to polls are unusual. Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust, so they can be less inclined to complete a survey from a news organization,” he said.
Watch Schoen explain the momentum behind Trump in swing states below:
The FiveThirtyEight founder continued, “Pollsters are attempting to correct for this problem with increasingly aggressive data-massaging techniques, like weighing by educational attainment (college-educated voters are more likely to respond to surveys) or even by how people say they voted in the past. There’s no guarantee any of this will work.”
"*" indicates required fields