The U.S. Senate race between Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic Party nominee James Talarico is shaping up to be one of the most competitive statewide races in decades. Polling from the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project from June showed Paxton at 43% support and Talarico with 42% support. Ted Brown, a Libertarian, came in third with a very small 3%.
Democrats are viewing the race between Talarico and Paxton as their best chance in decades to flip the traditionally red Senate seat blue, going on to cite Paxton’s divisive record and Talarico’s appeal among suburban voters and young people as something providing him with a leg up in the race against the attorney general.
“Folks are pretty damn bullish. I think this is the year,” Cliff Walker, a Texas Democratic strategist and principal at Seeker Strategies, said during an interview with Politico. But while Democrats are getting their hopes up about potentially making headway in turning Texas Democrat, data concerning the party’s most important voting bloc clearly shows that goal is still out of reach.
Paxton was able to secure the GOP nomination by beating out incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, an individual many in the MAGA movement consider a Republican In Name Only (RINO) by consolidating the party base. Talarico won the Democratic Party primary in March 2026 by defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) by six points.
According to The Daily Caller, Talarico’s win over Crockett is an important piece of the political puzzle, exposing critical demographic fault lines. Democrats have been quick to brag about how well Talarico performed among white and Hispanic voters, but are ignoring the beatdown he took from Crockett within the black population.
The New York Times analyzed primary returns and discovered Talarico received 37% of the vote in mostly black counties. Crockett pulled in 61%. Overall, black Texans represent 13% of the state’s registered voters, but still bring in big numbers for Democrats in urban areas like Harris (the Houston area) and Dallas Counties. However, the poll cited above shows that Talarico is not guaranteed to secure that same level of support with black voters.
Talarico reached a total of 67% support from black voters, according to polling. However, 84% of black voters cast a ballot for former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, according to a different poll from The Washington Post. Another worry for Democrats is that Paxton is currently scoring 13% support from black voters, while Brown is pulling in 6%.
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The biggest benefit Paxton has at this point in the race is support from a unified GOP base. There will likely be a few Cornyn voters who will refuse to support the attorney general, but for the most part, the majority of Texas Republicans will rally behind Paxton now that he is the nominee. If black support for Talarico fails to come to fruition, or if turnout is lower than expected, he will not have the numbers to defeat Paxton, which means the Democratic Party’s chances of turning Texas blue are fading by the day.
NEW TEXAS POLL by @TxPolProject at UT
Senate:
R- Paxton 43%
D- Talarico 42%
Libertarian- Brown 3%
Someone else- 3%
No opinion- 10%1200 registered TX voters
June 5-12
MOE: +/- 3.47%@CBSNewsTexas— Jack Fink (@cbs11jack) June 23, 2026