According to the results of a recent poll, former President Trump may be competitive in New York, a state that hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate in nearly 40 years. Trump previously indicated that he would “make a play” on New York after receiving an outpouring of support from locals during the hush money trial.
A poll conducted by Emerson College Polling, The Hill, and PIX11 found that President Biden’s lead over Trump in a head-to-head matchup had declined to roughly seven percentage points, sitting at 48-41. Furthermore, if third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein appeared on the ballot, Biden’s lead fell by six points, 44-38.
Of the poll participants, 48 percent were registered Democrats, 23 percent were Republicans, and 29 percent were independents. Forty-six percent were from New York City. Moreover, Biden’s job approval ratings continue to decline, corroborating the recent New York poll findings.
A Republican presidential candidate has not won New York since President Ronald Reagan in 1984, where Democrats have dominated the state in presidential elections since. For perspective, former President Trump lost New York to Hillary Clinton by 22.5 points in 2016 and 23.2 points to Biden in 2020.
Per the executive director of Emerson College Polling, Spencer Kimball, Independent voters who usually support Democrats are flocking to President Trump. “Independent voters in New York who traditionally vote for Democrats, according to exit polling, have flipped to lean toward Trump by a margin of ten points, 43% to 33%,” Kimball said.
As he was kept off of the campaign trail during the extensive hush money trial, former President Trump spent considerable time interacting with the New York City community. Trump was seen meeting with first responders and bodega workers and even hosted a massive rally in the South Bronx, which his campaign claims drew 25,000 people. In many instances when Trump was making public appearances, he was met with a roaring crowd
During an interview with Fox News, Trump discussed how amazing his supporters in the Big Apple were. “I think these maybe were Democrats. But for me, they are Republicans. We built a lot of great buildings in this city with these people. And they’ve given me great support. They’re really amazing,” he said.
"*" indicates required fields
Trump also stated that he was “very close” with Biden in the historically blue state along with many other swing states, he suggested that he would “make a play” for New York. “We’re very close in New York I understand and we’re leading in the country by a lot. A poll just came out a little while ago, as you saw yesterday, that we have we’re up in every swing state and up by a lot in every swing state so I think we’ll do very well and we’re gonna make a play for New York,” he said.
However, last week, Trump was found guilty of all 34 felony counts related to the falsification of business records in the hush money case brought against him by Manhattan District Attorney Alving Bragg. There are mixed reports on how this will affect Trump’s performance in the polls. See footage of Trump receiving a hero’s welcome in New York City below: