New York Governor Kathy Hochul received a sharp warning from likely voters in a new statewide poll that found her failing to cross the 50% mark while holding negative approval and favorability ratings. Hochul still leads Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman by ten points, but that advantage is half the lead she held among registered voters in June. The poll also showed Blakeman winning independents and outperforming the Democratic governor on several personal characteristics.
The Siena Research Institute surveyed 811 likely New York voters from August 3rd through August 6th, less than three months before Election Day. The poll found Hochul leading Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, by 49% to 39%, while 11% were undecided or refused to answer and 1% selected another candidate. The survey’s margin of error was plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for its core questions.
The results marked a substantial tightening from Siena’s June survey of registered voters, when Hochul led Blakeman 52% to 32%. “With less than three months till Election Day, Hochul holds a 10-point lead over Blakeman, 49-39%, not crossing the magic 50% mark,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. “In June, among registered voters, Hochul’s lead was twice as large, 52-32%.”
Hochul’s personal ratings offered another reason for concern for the incumbent. As WNYT reported, just 46% of likely voters viewed Hochul favorably, compared with 49% who viewed her unfavorably. Her job approval rating was similarly underwater, with 48% approving of her performance as governor and 49% disapproving.
Blakeman remained less familiar to voters, receiving a 33% favorable rating and a 26% unfavorable rating, while 40% said they did not know enough about him to offer an opinion. Despite that lack of familiarity, Blakeman led Hochul among independents by 45% to 40%. Hochul held Democrats by 80% to 8%, while Blakeman carried Republicans by 84% to 9%.
The governor’s advantages on several major issues were also narrower than her overall lead. Likely voters said Hochul would do a better job increasing affordable housing by 51% to 35% and making prices more affordable by 48% to 41%. Her margins fell to 47% to 44% on keeping New Yorkers safe and just 45% to 44% on addressing illegal immigrants living in the state.
“While Hochul has a 10-point lead, likely voters think she’ll do a better job than Blakeman on increasing affordable housing by 16 points. That’s the good news for Hochul,” Greenberg said. “The bad news is that voters think she’s better than Blakeman on four other issues – affordability, energy, safety, and immigrants – by between only one and seven points.”
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Voters also gave Blakeman stronger net ratings than Hochul when asked whether each candidate was tough, honest, in touch with average New Yorkers and capable of getting things done. Blakeman was viewed as tough by a net 25-point margin, compared with only two points for Hochul. Those findings came even as 40% of respondents said they still lacked enough information to form an overall opinion of the Republican challenger.
Hochul also ran behind other Democrats seeking statewide office. Attorney General Letitia James led Republican Saritha Komatireddy by 54% to 36%, while State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli led Republican Joseph Hernandez by 55% to 32%. Likely voters favored Democrats over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot by a 54% to 38% margin, placing Hochul’s 49% support below the Democratic share in each of those contests.
Blakeman rejected Siena’s findings and maintained that the gubernatorial contest was closer than the poll indicated. His response pointed to other polling that his campaign said showed a far tighter race between the two candidates. “All of the polls we have seen in the last two months have us virtually tied with Kathy Hochul. This poll is always off and continues to be off. We know and she knows this race is neck and neck,” Blakeman said.
Watch Hochul freak out about Trump here: