Republican Ed Gallrein, who was recently endorsed by President Donald Trump, has jumped in front of Rep. Thomas Massie in a major Kentucky GOP primary, according to data culled from a new Quantus Insights poll that is rocking conservative politics just a few days before voters make their final decision at the polls. The new survey reveals Gallrein ahead of Massie 48.3% to 43.1% among likely GOP primary voters in Kentucky.
The number of undecided voters is dropping into the low single digits before the May 19, 2026 primary election. The new data is a huge reversal from earlier polling information that showed Massie held a narrow lead over Gallrein, despite being the object of President Donald Trump’s wrath and attacks from MAGA-aligned outside organizations.
An earlier poll conducted by Quantus Insights released in April revealed Massie ahead of Gallrein 46.8% to 37.7%, which suggests voter opinions have undergone a major shift in the last several weeks. The primary race between the two men has become one of the most expensive House battles in modern politics, with $25 million in outside spending and a major push by Trump’s allies who are determined to see Massie ousted from his seat.
According to Trending Politics News, Massie, who is a Republican, but leans heavily toward libertarian principles, has represented the Northern Kentucky-based 4th District since 2012. He has a reputation for repeatedly breaking ranks with President Trump on major issues, including foreign policy, spending bills, and disputes connected to the controversial Epstein files.
Trump gave Gallrein his stamp of approval after launching a vicious public attack on Massie for coming out in opposition to parts of the administration’s agenda, transforming the race into a proxy war over the future direction of the GOP. Gallrein, a military veteran and salt-of-the-earth farmer, has leaned heavily into the president’s endorsement.
He has also exercised a lot of energy in painting Massie as being out of touch with the MAGA movement. The Bluegrass State’s 4th Congressional District leans mostly to the right and stretches across Northern Kentucky suburbs located close to Cincinnati, along with a few parts of northeastern Kentucky. Political observers have theorized that the outcome of the race between Massie and Gallrein could be the clearest test of Trump’s influence over GOP primary voters heading into the midterm elections later this year.
Just a few weeks ago, betting markets and previous polling suggested that Massie still had a significant chance of winning the primary, which makes the new poll from Quantus all the more significant. A report from The Hill said, “Among 69 respondents who were still undecided, Gallrein received support from 52.2 percent of them and Massie received the backing of 20.3 percent of them.”
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“More than 27 percent of those 69 respondents still said they were undecided, even when asked if they were leaning toward a particular candidate,” the report continued. While Gallrein has relied mostly on his presidential endorsement and his military experience on the campaign trail, Massie has slammed Gallrein as “woke Eddie” and played on his ties to Kentucky.
“Our nation and Kentucky have enormous challenges and problems,” the incumbent congressman went on to say in an ad he published on social media earlier in the week. “But after every visit back home to Kentucky, and talking with you and holding my grandchildren, I’m more renewed than ever to keep fighting.” At the end of April, both campaigns had less than $609,000 on hand.