Republicans have a serious opening in one of the country’s longest-standing Democratic strongholds, with a new statewide poll placing Republican Christine Drazan narrowly ahead in Oregon’s race for governor. The survey found Drazan leading Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek by two percentage points after undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward supporting. The advantage remains within the poll’s margin of error, but it puts the Republican challenger within striking distance less than seven weeks before Election Day.
The contest is a rematch of Oregon’s closely watched 2022 gubernatorial race, with Kotek seeking a second term and Drazan attempting to finish the job after falling short four years ago. Drazan currently represents Canby in the Oregon Senate and previously served as the Republican leader in the state House. Voters will decide the race on November 3rd. Democrats have won every Oregon gubernatorial election since 1986.
DHM Research conducted the survey of 600 likely Oregon voters from September 3rd through September 9th. On the initial ballot question, Drazan received 43%, Kotek took 41%, and Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith received 3%, while 13% remained undecided. After pollsters asked undecided voters which way they were leaning, Drazan rose to 45%, Kotek reached 43%, Smith climbed to 4%, and 8% remained uncertain. The poll carried a four-point margin of error, making Drazan’s two-point advantage a statistical tie.
Oregon Public Broadcasting reported that Grow Oregon, an advocacy nonprofit supported by several business groups, funded the statewide survey. The poll is only the second publicly reported survey of the general-election rematch. An internal poll released by Drazan’s campaign earlier this year gave the Republican candidate a four-point advantage in late June, while Kotek’s campaign had not released its own polling.
The numbers beneath the race may be even more troubling for the incumbent. The Oregon Journalism Project, which obtained and first reported the poll, found that 59% of respondents disapproved of Kotek’s performance, compared with just 37% who approved. Another 58% said Oregon was on the “wrong track.” Those figures give Drazan a substantial pool of dissatisfied voters to target during the closing weeks of the campaign.
Affordability led the list of voter concerns, with 87% saying it would play an important role in their decision. K-12 education followed at 85%, while housing affordability registered at 78%. Taxes and homelessness each came in at 77%, while 73% identified crime as an important issue. Data centers, which have generated growing political controversy in Oregon, ranked lower at 50%.
The tightening contest has already caught the attention of national political handicappers. On September 10th, the Cook Political Report shifted Oregon’s gubernatorial race from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.” Cook described Oregon as a deep-blue state but acknowledged that Kotek’s reelection effort had become more competitive than Democrats had wanted. The ratings change came before the DHM survey showing Drazan narrowly ahead was publicly reported.
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Kotek defeated Drazan in 2022 with approximately 47% of the vote to the Republican’s 43.5%. Unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson captured nearly 9%, making the contest an unusual three-way race in which neither major-party nominee secured a majority. Johnson is not on the ballot this time, and Smith is currently the only minor-party candidate in the 2026 contest. His 4% support in the new poll remains well below Johnson’s final showing four years ago.
Kotek’s campaign responded by pointing to the remaining undecided voters and attempting to tie Drazan to President Donald Trump. Drazan, meanwhile, is campaigning on the economy, taxes, government accountability, housing, and the state’s persistent homelessness problem. Both campaigns have already begun airing television advertisements as the race enters its final weeks. Campaign strategist Trey Rosser said, “Oregonians are ready for change, and they see Christine as the leader who can deliver it.”