New Hampshire incumbent Gov. Kelly Ayotte is off to an amazing start against her Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington in the general election for the governor’s mansion this November, already taking the lead by a total of 21 percentage points. Decision Desk HQ has already predicted that Ayotte is “likely” to hold on to her current position following the election.
Ayotte had an amazing showing during the primary race a week ago, defeating her two leading GOP challengers by a staggering 88 percentage points with only 17% of the total vote counted. Warmington, her competition for the governorship, is a former New Hampshire executive councilor who was previously defeated in the Democratic primary in 2024.
Warmington lost that race to former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. Ayotte defeated Craig by almost 10 percentage points in the general election. This time around, Warmington ran completely uncontested, pulling in support from New Hampshire Sens. Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan. The DDHQ forecast currently has the probability of Ayotte winning the general election 65% to 35% for Warmington.
According to a report from The New Hampshire Bulletin, Ayotte’s approval rating in the August Granite State Poll was 49%. During her first term as governor, Ayotte succeeded in pushing the Legislature to roll back bail reform laws that she felt were too lenient on pre-trial crime suspects. She also signed a bell-to-bell public school cell phone ban into law.
Ayotte continued her tough-on-crime agenda by increasing the harshness of penalties for drivers who refuse to take a Breathalyzer test. She then implemented premiums to some Medicaid enrollees and increased the cost of copays. Unsurprisingly, her opponent, Warmington, was a huge supporter of the country’s leading abortion mill, Planned Parenthood.
The New Hampshire Democrat opposed canceling and denying contracts with Planned Parenthood of Northern New England during her tenure as an executive councilor. Fortunately, her Republican colleagues successfully pushed for that policy. Ayotte is focusing the majority of her campaign on hammering Warmington for her work in support of the opioid industry.
Before she became executive councilor, Warmington worked as a healthcare attorney representing Purdue Pharma, along with a clinic that was slammed for over-prescribing opioids to patients. The incumbent governor has put out tons of commercials, billboards, and other ads labeling Warmington as an “opioid lobbyist” due to her past work.
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Ayotte has promised voters that during her second term, she will focus on housing legislation that she signed into law, saying it will ease spiking housing costs and has affirmed she will keep being tough on crime. Warmington ripped into Ayotte for her Medicaid premium plan and the cuts she made to the state’s budget.
She’s also blamed Ayotte for a scandal involving abuse and neglect at the Sununu Youth Services Center, which is a juvenile justice facility located in Manchester. Warmington has also attempted to paint Ayotte as having connections to President Donald Trump, who isn’t popular in the liberal state, and has accused her of not being willing to “stand up to” the administration over a number of issues.
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