Democrats’ hopes for a midterm blowout are running into a serious enthusiasm problem among the voters they’re relying on to deliver it. A new national survey shows several Democratic-leaning constituencies trailing President Donald Trump’s MAGA supporters in excitement about the prospect of voting in roughly a week. Republicans have also nearly eliminated the Democrats’ advantage in how closely their voters are following the election.
The findings come from the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll conducted October 19th–20th, with control of Congress at stake in November. Among likely voters under 45, just 42% described themselves as “very enthusiastic” about voting, compared with 68% of MAGA voters. Strong enthusiasm reached 53% among nonwhite voters and 56% among college-educated white women.
Democratic voters also expressed less confidence in their candidates than their voting intentions might suggest. While 98% of Democratic likely voters intended to support their party’s congressional candidate, 81% expected that candidate to win. That 17-percentage-point gap exceeded the corresponding 10-point difference among Republicans.
As Trending Politics reported, Republicans have also nearly erased Democrats’ advantage in following the elections very closely. Among registered voters, 46% of Democrats and 45% of Republicans were paying that level of attention, compared with 42% and 34%, respectively, a month earlier. Marist’s published findings also put Democrats’ generic congressional ballot advantage among registered voters at 10 points, down from 12 in September.
Among likely voters, Democrats led Republicans 52% to 44% on the congressional ballot question. The survey found that 44% planned to cast their congressional vote mainly against Trump, while 21% said their vote would express support for him and 35% said he was not influencing their choice very much. When the broader categories of enthusiastic and very enthusiastic were combined, Democrats registered 91% and Republicans 86%.
NPR’s report on the findings explained that this was Marist’s first survey of the cycle to apply a likely-voter screen. Pollsters use measures such as voting history and enthusiasm to identify respondents most likely to cast ballots. Trump’s job approval stood at 38% among registered voters and 40% among likely voters, with disapproval at 61% and 59%, respectively. The survey included 1,289 registered voters, with a margin of error of ±3.8 percentage points for likely voters.
Watch the CNN polling analysis showing a possible Republican victory here:
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Household costs were another concern in the NPR reporting, with roughly a third saying they had experienced financial hardship in the previous year. About four in 10 said their personal finances had worsened. Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old Arizona poll participant described as a Democratic-leaning independent, pointed to food and gasoline prices. “The economy is at the top of my list right now,” he said.
Separate CNN analysis supplied another warning about treating polling leads as secured seats. According to Trending Politics’ coverage of Harry Enten’s presentation, Republicans outperformed final Senate polling averages by 4.1 percentage points in Trump-won states across the 2018–2024 elections, compared with 0.2 points in states he lost. The analysis covered races with at least two polls. Applying that historical difference to the competitive races Enten examined produced a hypothetical 52–48 Republican Senate majority; Democrats could take the chamber if the current polling averages held instead.
Featured image credit: screengrab from the embedded video.