Republican Ashley Hinson now holds the edge in an important Senate race in the state of Iowa, hanging on to the lead by the skin of her teeth, according to data gleaned from a new Quantus Insights poll that shows she has a golden opportunity to strengthen her current position by bringing in more GOP voters to support her and her platform.
The data shows Hinson drawing in 47.1% support compared to her Democratic opponent Josh Turek, who comes in with 45.8%. The poll was conducted between September 28-29. Libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn pulled in 1.7% support. A total of 5.4% still remain undecided. Hinson has a lot of room for growth within the GOP.
According to the results of the survey, she wins 85% of self-identified Republicans, while Turek has already pulled in 91% support from fellow Democrats. Hinson is in a favorable position if she can find a way to seal up the gap in party support during the last five weeks of the campaign season leading up to the midterm elections in November.
Trending Politics News is reporting that Hinson finishes ahead in three ballot questions tested, although each advantage is still within the limits of sampling uncertainty and none of them establishes a statistically clear leader. The poll revealed that Turek has greater crossover support, taking 8% of Republicans compared to Hinson’s 5% among Democrats.
The report then stated that it is critical for Hinson to win back some of those GOP voters that Turek pulled in, which would make a huge difference in a race that is currently only separated by 1.3 percentage points on the full ballot. The sources for the support of each major party candidate could not be different from one another.
Hinson has taken a huge 58%-36% lead among rural voters and is a big hit with men, taking 52% to Turek’s 40%. However, when it comes to the urban demographic, Turek is ahead 58%-35%, and has pulled in 52% of the female vote compared to Hinson’s 42%. Voters living in the suburbs are favoring the Democratic candidate 48% to 42%.
Voters in towns are much more divided, backing Turek 48% to 45%. One thing giving Turek a lot of strength is his favor with independent voters. Those who consider themselves independent favor Turek 53% to 36%, with only 9% undecided, giving Hinson another group of individuals she needs to court before Election Day rolls around.
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When the survey expands to include initially undecided voters who have now leaned more toward one candidate over the other, Hinson gains a statewide edge. When those preferences are added in, she takes the lead over Turek 48.5% to 46.6%. A separate matchup focusing on just the two major-party candidates has Hinson in the lead at 48.9% and Turek at 46.7%.
Neither candidate manages to reach 50% support in any of the three scenarios put forward by the survey. Both candidates are entering the home stretch of the campaign with mixed reviews from voters. Hinson is viewed favorably by 42.9% of voters, but unfavorably by 45.3%. Turek’s ratings are almost split evenly, with 38.9% favorable and 39% unfavorable. The full study reported having a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points with a confidence level of 95%.