Republicans received encouraging news from New Mexico after a new poll placed GOP congressional candidate Greg Cunningham within striking distance of Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez. The SurveyUSA poll showed Vasquez leading Cunningham by only three percentage points in New Mexico’s highly competitive 2nd Congressional District. That gap falls inside the poll’s margin of error, making the contest a statistical tie. President Donald Trump carried the district during the 2024 election despite Vasquez winning another term in Congress.
KOB 4 commissioned the survey of 554 likely voters, which found Vasquez receiving 46% support and Cunningham receiving 43%. Another 11 percent of voters remained undecided, leaving more than enough votes available to change the outcome before Election Day. The poll carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. Vasquez is seeking a third term against Cunningham, a first-time congressional candidate with a military and law-enforcement background.
The result gives Republicans another reason to treat the southern New Mexico district as a serious pickup opportunity. Vasquez remains below the 50% mark despite holding the advantages that generally accompany incumbency, while more than one in ten likely voters have yet to choose a candidate. The 11 percent undecided leaves room for the race to move before Election Day.
As Breitbart News reported, the poll also showed sharp divisions among major voting groups. Vasquez led Cunningham among women by 13 points and among Latino voters by 20 points. Cunningham held a five-point advantage among men and an 11-point lead among white voters. Those numbers point to Latino voters as one of the clearest opportunities, and largest challenges, for the Republican campaign.
Cunningham has made outreach to Hispanic voters a central part of his campaign in a state where roughly half the population is Hispanic. His pitch focuses on family, faith, public safety, and cultural values rather than relying exclusively on party identification. The new polling shows he still has considerable ground to make up with Latino voters, but the overall three-point margin indicates that his broader coalition has kept the race close.
Cunningham told Fox News that “Hispanic culture is at its core a conservative culture.” The Republican served as a Marine reconnaissance veteran in combat before joining the Albuquerque Police Department. His law-enforcement career included patrol and narcotics work, service as a Drug Enforcement Administration task-force officer, and undercover assignments involving drug and cartel cases. He later moved into private security work before entering the congressional race.
New Mexico’s 2nd District has already produced two close congressional elections. According to Ballotpedia, Vasquez defeated then-Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell by approximately seven-tenths of a percentage point in 2022. Vasquez won their 2024 rematch by 52.1% to 47.9%. Trump carried the same district with 49.9% of the vote against Kamala Harris’ 48.1%, making it one of 23 Trump-won House districts currently represented by a Democrat.
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Major election forecasters have continued to give Vasquez an advantage, with ratings ranging from “Tilt Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.” National Republicans, however, have invested attention in Cunningham’s campaign, and House Speaker Mike Johnson traveled to New Mexico in late August to campaign with him. The National Republican Congressional Committee has also included the district among the races where its internal polling showed Republicans either leading or tied within the margin of error.
Vasquez held a substantial fundraising advantage as of June 30th, having raised approximately $3.78 million compared with Cunningham’s $1.51 million. Cunningham must now convert the district’s support for Trump and the large pool of undecided voters into votes for a Republican congressional candidate. “I just have to convince [New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District] why we can win this,” Cunningham said.
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