President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown has coincided with a staggering decrease of nearly 3 million people in America’s foreign-born population, according to a new analysis of federal data. The estimated illegal immigrant population fell by 2.3 million between January 2025 and July 2026, while the legal immigrant population declined by roughly 600,000. The shift is so dramatic that Center for Immigration Studies research director Steven Camarota believes the total United States population may now be decreasing.
The figures come from an analysis of the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey conducted by the Center for Immigration Studies. The monthly survey, which is also used to calculate the national unemployment rate, asks respondents about their country of birth and other demographic information. Researchers used those responses and other demographic characteristics to estimate changes among both legal and illegal immigrants during Trump’s first 18 months back in office.
The country’s total foreign-born population fell from approximately 53.3 million in January 2025 to 50.5 million in July 2026. That decline followed a massive increase during the four years of the Biden administration, when the foreign-born population grew by an estimated 8.3 million. According to the analysis, the latest numbers indicate that net migration has remained negative for a sustained period for the first time since the 1930s.
As The Washington Times reported, Center for Immigration Studies research director Steven Camarota said the turnaround was unlike anything found in recent American immigration data. “We’ve never seen anything quite like this before,” Camarota said. “This is big and sustained, as best as we can tell.”
Camarota attributed the decrease to Trump’s tighter border policies, increased interior enforcement, formal deportations, and the pressure placed on illegal immigrants to leave voluntarily. The researchers estimated that the illegal immigrant population declined from 15.8 million in January 2025 to approximately 13.5 million by July 2026. “It is a fundamental change, and it’s profound,” Camarota said.
Those figures represent a net change rather than a simple count of deportations. The analysis weighs new arrivals against deportations, voluntary departures, deaths, and illegal immigrants who obtained legal status during the period. For purposes of the estimate, migrants admitted under parole programs and asylum applicants who had not yet been granted status were counted as part of the illegal immigrant population.
The Department of Homeland Security has reported larger departure figures using a different method. At the first anniversary of Trump’s return to office, the department said nearly 3 million illegal immigrants had left the country, including approximately 675,000 formal removals and 2.2 million self-deportations. Camarota’s calculation is lower because it measures the net change after accounting for migrants who continued to enter the country.
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The analysis also found that only 44% of the decline in the foreign-born population involved workers. The remaining portion consisted of children, elderly people, and other adults who were not participating in the labor force. Camarota suggested that some immigrant workers may have remained in the United States while sending family members back to their home countries, helping explain why the decline has not produced a dramatic nationwide drop in the number of workers.
Regional industries, including construction in South Texas, have reportedly experienced some disruption, but the nationwide economic effects have been limited. Camarota said American workers could benefit from reduced competition for jobs and housing, while employers may face a smaller applicant pool. Fewer immigrants could also mean less tax revenue, though he argued that the reduction in government benefit costs could offset those losses.
The Current Population Survey covers approximately 60,000 households and 110,000 people, giving researchers a large sample but leaving a significant margin of error. The estimated foreign-born population of 50.5 million could be approximately 1 million higher or lower, and researchers acknowledged that some immigrants may have become less willing to participate in government surveys. They found no clear evidence of declining survey participation, however, and said survey response patterns still point toward a sustained decline.
Census Bureau data had already shown population growth slowing to just 0.5% between July 2024 and July 2025, with officials citing a historic decrease in net international migration. Camarota said an overall population decline would create new economic questions but argued that the country should not panic over the change. “On balance, I think it’s a good deal for the country because I think most people are more worried about wages, housing prices, congestion and impact on schools and hospitals,” he said.
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