CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten delivered some bad news for the Democratic Party, effectively dashing their hopes for big wins in the 2026 midterm elections coming this fall, saying that when it comes to popularity, the left is far behind where they’ve been in previous years. Enten was joined by colleague John Berman to chat about the elections, which are now less than eight months away.
Enten said that Democrats weren’t even remotely close to where they were in terms of popularity during previous midterm elections when the commander-in-chief was a Republican. “Just take a look at this, net favorability, party ahead at this point, midterm years with a GOP president. In 2018, Dems were up by 12,” Enten went on to say during the segment.
“In 2006, on net favorability, which party do you like more, Dems are ahead by 18. Republicans are actually ahead on net favorability at this [point] by five points. So Democrats are just, simply put, running behind their previous benchmarks and they need to be running well ahead of them if they want to take back the United States Senate, given that math,” Enten continued.
According to the Daily Wire, a few moments before he splashed cold water on the hopes and dreams of Democrats, he provided reasons why he thought the left still had a good shot at taking over the House of Representatives, but noted they would have a difficult time sinking their teeth into the Senate and taking the majority.
The data analyst cited a small lead for Democrats on generic ballots, explaining that the spread could be enough for them to overcome the razor-thin margin Republicans hold in the House. “I would say this, Mr. Berman, and that is that this lead is historically low for Democrats at this point with a Republican president,” Enten went on to say.
“Because, take a look here, and I’m taking a look at the average of all the polls, Dem generic congressional ballot lead at this point in the cycle with a Republican president. On average, their lead’s actually slightly less, it’s five points. That’s less than it was back in 2018 when it was eight points, and way less than it was during the 2006 cycle when it was 11 points,” Enten explained to the viewing audience.
“So, yeah, Democrats are ahead, but they’re only ahead by five with a president whose net approval rating is bordering on -20 to -30, depending on what polls you look at. You’d make the argument Democrats should be way ahead. And they’re just only sort of, slightly ahead,” he continued. The math, according to Enten, won’t provide much help for Democrats in the Senate due to the map that’s in play for the midterms.
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“I think five points is enough to take back the House, but in the Senate, five points is almost certainly not enough if you apply it to the Senate map,” Enten said, building his case. “Why do I say that? Because let’s just take a look, GOP would win the Senate with this map. Let’s say Republicans only hold onto the states that Trump won by greater than 10 points. That would, in fact, give them the Senate 51 to 49.”
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