A new Pulse Opinion Research poll, commissioned by challenger Mark Lynch’s campaign, shows the challenger surging against incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) in the May 2026 South Carolina Republican primary, indicating that perhaps that longtime, much-derided RINO could finally be forced ou.
In the initial ballot among 1,000 likely GOP voters, Graham leads at 41%, Lynch at 21%, Paul Dans at 11%, with 22% unsure. On an “informed” ballot providing candidate records, Lynch jumps to 34%, Graham drops to 23%, Dans stays at 11%, and unsure rises to 26%.
For context, the memo highlights Graham’s weakness in a pro-Trump state where Trump enjoys 72% approval. Lynch, self-funding over $1M already and planning $3.5M+ more, positions himself as an America First conservative. Graham has launched attack ads, taking the threat seriously despite Trump’s early endorsement.
“Lindsey Graham is in real trouble in this solidly pro-Trump primary,” the polling memo explained, adding that the situation was dire for the RINO: “When South Carolina Republican voters learn the candidates’ records, they shift sharply to conservative challenger Mark Lynch.
Rounding out the memo, pollsters added, “With a large undecided pool and strong Trump alignment on border security and America First issues, Lynch is well-positioned to win the nomination and the seat.” Taking note of the major opportunity, other pollsters took notice.
Mark Mitchell, head pollster of Rasmussen Reports, explained, “I’ve polled quite a few races like this in the ’26 cycle and Lindsey Graham is one of the weakest incumbents I’ve seen. Despite the name ID advantage, Mark Lynch takes a clear lead on the informed ballot. This is a huge opportunity.” Mitchell said the results were “embarrassingly bad for Graham” and “huge opportunity.”
One average conservative posted, “I can honestly say I’ve never met a supporter of Miss Lindsey and I’ve never met anyone who would own up to voting for him either. A credible challenger could defeat him and his ladybugs easily,” on social media.
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Replying, Mark Lynch stated, “I put $5 million of my retirement in to take Lindsey out. South Carolinians are ready for an America First voice to represent them in Washington!” Responding, the intial poster suggested, “If we can get voters to show up and not split the vote we can be rid of Miss Lindsey. Drew McKissick might faint.”
In his official campaign announcement, Lynch stated, “I’m running for United States Senate to replace the war marker. Lindsey Graham, all of South Carolina has been asking, Where have you been the last year? We know where you’ve been.”
“You’ve been negotiating and promoting wars all over the world, but we hear you’re coming back because you need to get our sons and daughters to send to the Middle East to fight so you can line your pockets with more money,” the true conservative explained.
Building on this point, Lynch stated, “But we’re all up to that. We know what your schemes are. We know what you’re really about. It’s about funding Lindsay. We’re tired of fighting wars and making you rich, so we’re not putting up with it anymore.”
Concluding his comments, he added, “The people of South Carolina are ready for change. They’re ready for a true conservative, God fearing patron that keeps America first, and that’s me, Lindsay, clean your office out. We’re coming to take it over.”
Watch Trump trash talk Lindsey Graham here: