New polling data has great news for Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, who is running against establishment Republican In Name Only (RINO) Sen. John Cornyn for his Senate seat. The poll, from Impact Research, has Paxton being the preferred candidate for the position among likely Republican primary voters, 53% to Cornyn’s 37%.
When it comes to favorability among Republican primary voters, a total of 64% of those surveyed had a favorable view of Paxton, with 31% having an unfavorable opinion of him. Things look much worse for Cornyn, who has a favorability rating of 45% and an unfavorable one of 47%. Where things get a little dicey is where either candidate stands when it comes to facing off against their Democratic opponent, James Talarico.
The current data says that when it comes to likely primary voters in general, Cornyn falls behind Talarico by 2%, while Paxton is only behind by 1%. The runoff between Cornyn and Paxton is scheduled for May 2026. Another poll that was recently published revealed that if President Donald Trump doesn’t endorse John Cornyn in the primary, Paxton will defeat him in the runoff.
According to The Hill, a new Change Research survey discovered that 42% of likely Texas GOP primary voters stand with Paxton, compared to 39% for Cornyn. However, things change a bit if President Trump throws his support behind the incumbent. The survey data indicates that some voters would change their support to Cornyn if Trump backs him.
The poll stated that with the president’s endorsement, Cornyn will then have a three-point advantage over Paxton. Should the endorsement swing in Paxton’s favor, the race would also be impacted. A total of 50% of voters surveyed said they would back Paxton with Trump’s support, with only 40% saying they would vote for Cornyn.
The two candidates are now embroiled in an intense runoff race after neither of the Republicans secured over 50% of the vote in the Texas GOP primary held on March 3, 2026. Many general Republicans, those who don’t identify themselves as belonging to the MAGA movement, feel Cornyn is the stronger general election candidate against Talarico, though either of them could beat him since Texas hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in decades.
Both Cornyn and Paxton have worked to present themselves as avid supporters of the president and his policies. Paxton stated that he would consider dropping out of the race entirely if the Senate decided to eliminate the regular filibuster that would allow the SAVE Act to move through the chamber. The SAVE Act would require individuals to provide proof of citizenship when both registering to vote and casting ballots at the polls.
"*" indicates required fields
Trump has stated on numerous occasions that he would be revealing his endorsement, so it could come at any time. In early March, the president said that he would encourage whoever didn’t get his endorsement to drop out of the race. However, as of this writing, the president has not endorsed either candidate. The withdrawal deadline has already come and gone, which means that regardless of endorsement, both Cornyn and Paxton will appear on the ballot on May 26.
Featured Image: screenshot from embedded video