According to commentary from top CNN polling analyst Harry Enten, former President Donald Trump has better chances in the upcoming election than some polling may indicate. After Vice President Kamala Harris stepped up to lead the Democratic ticker, there was a wave of renewed optimism from liberal voters and a subsequent bump in polling numbers.
However, Enten points out that the race is still close, where Trump is “very much” in the running. The analyst also drew on past elections where, in 2016 and 2020, there were substantial inaccuracies in polling regarding Trump’s support throughout the country. Therefore, Enten urged Democrats to be cautious about celebrating Harris’s polling.
“So, August 13th, how far were the polls off in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? And this is in 2016 and 2020. Take a look here, in 2016, the average poll in those states that I mentioned, those Great Lake battleground states, Trump was underestimated by nine points on average at this point in 2016. How about 2020? It wasn’t a one-off. Look at this, he was underestimated by five points on average,” Enten explained.
Enten continued, emphasizing that the race is far from over. “The bottom line is this. If you have any idea, if you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it. Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift, like we’ve seen in prior years from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but I am saying that he is very much in this ballgame based upon where he is right now. And compare that to where he was in prior years,” he said.
Enten further noted that Harris’s increased optimism over Biden has not necessarily indicated that she will receive enough votes to defeat Trump. “So, the bottom line here is, yes, there may be more enthusiasm for Kamala Harris, but the fact is we’re not seeing that necessarily translate in the almost certain to vote,” he added.
Moreover, data indicates that Trump is more popular than he was at this time in past elections, when polling historically underestimates his popularity. “And one little other note: Donald Trump is more popular today than he was on August 13th in either 2020 or 2016. So, the bottom line is, yes, Kamala Harris is doing better in the polls, but there’s a long way to go. The polls can shift. The almost certain to vote hasn’t actually shifted and Donald Trump is more popular than he was at either 2016 or 2020 at this point,” he said.
The American Tribune recently reported on a video message former President Trump shared on social media during an emergency landing with his plane while flying to Montana for a rally and fundraising event. Trump expressed optimism in the polling data he has seen, claiming he is leading Harris in “just about every poll.”
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Watch Enten’s analysis below:
“And we’re leading in all of the polls now. Just about every poll has us leading,” Trump said. “They found out that this is a pony that we’re running against, a person that had no idea what she was doing on the border, has no idea what’s happening with inflation, had no idea what they did when it came to Afghanistan, the most embarrassing day in the life, in the life of our country, there’s never been anything so embarrassing. We should have gotten out with dignity and strength, not the way they got out. It’s an embarrassment to our country.”