Akio Toyoda, the Chairman of Japan’s famous Toyota Motor Corporation, recently announced that, in his view, electric cars powered by batteries will only ever reach about a third of the vehicle market, with combustion-powered, hydrogen-powered, and hybrid vehicles taking the rest of the market share. He added that the lack of electricity in many parts of the world will limit the usefulness of EVs in those areas.
Chairman Toyoda’s remarks came as part of an interview published by Toyota Times, the company’s media platform, on Tuesday, January 23. In the published document, which was the transcript of his remarks at a business event from earlier in January, he explained his stance on electric vehicles and the future of vehicle powertrains.
The comments of Chairman Toyoda on EVs came when he was asked, “Toyota says it will do everything, including BEVs (electric vehicles) and hydrogen. I am interested in the future vision of Toyota’s car manufacturing. I would like to hear how you view the future and how you plan to proceed.” Responding in jest at first, he said, “It will take about 4 hours to answer that question…When I try to answer in 4 minutes, I find myself thinking, “ Isn’t just one option enough?”
Then, getting more serious, he said, “How to climb the mountain of carbon neutrality is related to each country’s energy situation. In addition, Toyota is working with the idea of doing what it can right now.” Continuing, he said, “As you know, Toyota is a global company and a full-line manufacturer. Those who say ” BEV ” are actually fighting with just BEV. BEVs and FCEVs (fuel cell vehicles) come as a set with infrastructure.”
But then he explained the issues with electric vehicles, which he continued referring to as “BEV” vehicles, saying, “However, one billion people around the world live in areas without electricity. In the case of Toyota, we also supply vehicles to these regions, so a single BEV option cannot provide transportation for everyone. That’s why I try to have a variety of options.”
He also described where Toyota has focused and why, saying, “What Toyota has that other companies don’t have is HEV (hybrid vehicles). Thanks to the introduction of HEVs in Japan 20 to 30 years ago, Japan is the only developed country to have reduced CO2 emissions by 23%. However, no one, mainly the media, is giving us an explanation. All I hear is, “Toyota is behind in BEVs .” The important thing is not to convert to BEV or FCEV . The enemy is CO2 . So,let’s all think about reducing CO2 right away. Toyota believes that freedom of movement should never be taken away from people in any region, country, or income group.”
That’s when he dropped the bad news on the EV market, saying that it will never manage to garner more than about a third or so of the market share. He said, “No matter how much progress BEVs make, I think they will still only have a 30 % market share . Then, the remaining 70 % will be HEVs , FCEVs , and hydrogen engines. And I think engine cars will definitely remain. I think this is something that customers and the market will decide, not regulatory values or political power.”
That perspective is somewhat different from what Toyota and analysts have claimed. Toyota’s own Chief Executive Officer, Koji Sato, said in 2023 that Toyota would sell 3.5 million EVs by 2030, and BloombergNEF has estimated that by 2040 about three-quarters of new car sales will be EVs, with EVs making up about 44% of the passenger vehicle market.
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