Things continue to swing Trump’s way as the 2024 race heats up, with numerous swing states now swinging his way as American exasperation with President Joe Biden’s Administration grows. In fact, a recent poll shows that in six states, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, voters are leaning Trump’s way.
That news comes from a Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey which was released on Monday, a poll that showed the dramatic swing toward Trump and how Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s run is pulling votes away from President Joe Biden headed into 2024.
In the survey, which polled a total of 6,029 swing state voters, those voters were asked, “If the candidates for the Presidential Election on November 5, 2024, are as follows, for whom will you vote?” The results were uniformly in favor of Trump, though to different degrees depending on the state, and the demographics of who is supporting RFK Jr.’s run seem to explain why.
In the state of Arizona, Trump is up against Biden by six points, winning 41 percent of the electorate to Biden’s 35 points, with RFJ Jr. winning ten points. In Florida, where Kennedy holds 9 percent, Trump is up by 11 points, beating Biden 45 to 34. Similarly, in Georgia, Trump is up 8 points, beating Biden 42 to 34. Meanwhile, RFK Jr. holds 8 points there.
Trump’s lead is much smaller, but a lead nonetheless, in Pennsylvania and Michigan. In Michigan, he holds a razor-thin 2-point lead over Biden, 39 to 37, with Kennedy holding 9 points. In Pennsylvania, Trump has just a 1-point lead, 40 to 39, over Biden, and Mr. Kennedy holds just 6 percent of the electorate’s support.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies, after noting the poll results, notes that Mr. Kennedy’s candidacy appears to be helping Trump and hurting Biden. According to it, those voters who are supporting RFK Jr. are, to a large degree, voters who voted for Biden in the 2020 election. In fact, it notes that “three times as many Biden 2020 as Trump 2020 voters would vote for RFK Jr. in Florida (13% vs 4%) while in Georgia, more than six times as many (13% vs 2%) say they would do so.”
In addition to RFK Jr. pulling votes away from President Joe Biden, Trump’s lead is explained by the main issue voters care about, which is the economy. Though immigration and abortion are also top issues that the polled voters care about, the top issue across all six swing states was the economy, which many argue President Biden has handled poorly during his presidency.
Further, voters have a dim view of Biden across the swing states at issue, with Redfield & Wilton noting that “President Biden holds a negative net approval rating among voters in all six states polled. His highest approval rating comes in Michigan (-4%), while his lowest is in Pennsylvania (-16%).”
Trump, posting about the election and his supporters on Truth Social, said, “The Great Silent Majority is rising like never before—and under our leadership, the Forgotten Man and Woman Will Be Forgotten No Longer! We will LOVE our Country. We will TAKE CARE of our Country. We will pray to God for our strength and for our liberty—We will pray for God, and we will be with God!”
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