Former President Donald Trump, as the 2024 race begins to heat up between him and Biden and the GOP primary seems to have a foregone conclusion in his favor, just got some great news from two key states: Pennsylvania and Ohio.
According to recent polling out of the two states, one famous for its status as a bellwether and the other important as a Rust Belt state the GOP needs to flip, former President Trump currently holds a nearly double-digit lead over President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania and a twelve point lead over Biden in Ohio.
The Pennsylvania poll was published on Wednesday. It shows that, in the key Rust Belt state, a whopping 45 percent of registered voters back Trump. That huge result places him a whopping 9 points ahead of current President Joe Biden, who sits at just 36 percent. Eleven percent of the remaining voters said they would back another candidate, and the last eight percent are still undecided.
Notably, that result is a slight improvement for Trump from 2020 and a disastrously bad slide for Biden from the same year. In the 2020 election, 43 percent of respondents voted for Biden and 42 percent supported Trump. So, Trump gained three points and Biden lost seven, a ten-point swing.
Also important for Trump is that he did well with Independents in the state. Among that demographic, Biden won a dismally small 14 percent, whereas Trump has already won over 44 percent. The remaining 42 percent are undecided so far or would vote for someone else.
PENNSYLVANIA POLL
2024 Hypothetical Presidential General Election
Donald Trump 45%
Joe Biden 36%
Someone else 11%
8% undecidedhttps://t.co/mkkvojSab2 pic.twitter.com/ZykBudrYOn— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) October 11, 2023
Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball commented on the poll’s results, saying, “Biden leads Trump 44% to 39% among voters under 40, however those under 30 within this group break for Trump 45% to 39%. Conversely, Casey leads McCormick 46% to 22% among voters under 40, and leads 42% to 23% with voters under 30.”
He continued, “An additional group that splits their ticket include voters whose highest level of education is a high school degree or less: these voters break for Trump 53% to 27%, while Casey leads this group 36% to 33% over McCormick.”
That wasn’t the only good news for Trump that came out this week. Another poll, this one out of the bellwether state of Ohio, showed that Trump currently holds a twelve point lead over Biden in that state, a far better lead than the Senate candidates have.
Emerson College Professor Spencer Kimball, commenting on the results, noted, “Trump leads Biden by 12 points in Ohio, a larger lead than his 2020 and 2016 victories of about eight points. Like in the U.S. Senate race, younger and minority voters are more likely to be undecided or voting for someone else — indicating lower enthusiasm for Democratic candidates both at the statewide and national level.”
📊 OHIO 2024 POLL: Emerson (A-)
PRES:
(R) Trump 45%
(D) Biden 33%
——
SEN:
(R) Dolan 38%
(D) Brown 36%
~~
(R) LaRose 39%
(D) Brown 38%
~~
(D) Brown 35%
(R) Moreno 33%
——
Job Approval
Biden: 25/58 (-33)
DeWine: 34/28 (+6)
——
10/2-4 | 438 RV | MoE: ±4.5%https://t.co/LIdTB8463L pic.twitter.com/Fgvzh2gej8— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 10, 2023
It remains to be seen how many of those undecided voters in both states, but particularly Pennsylvania, can be rallied by the Democrats to vote for Biden and how many can be won over by Trump. Likely, the economic and inflation situation will be a key influence given the disparity between the Trump economy and the Biden economy.
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