After months of speculation, Bud Light has finally lost its spot as the number one beer by market share. Since the Dylan Mulvaney Disaster began in early April, sales have tanked and rival brand Modelo Especial has encroached on Bud Light’s position.
According to the latest data, Modelo is the number one beer ranked by market share. Reportedly, Modelo Especial claimed 8.34 percent of all dollars spent on beer through August 12 whereas Bud Light earned 8.28 percent.
Modelo has been consistently outselling Bud Light on a monthly basis as the boycott against the beer had begun to materialize. The American Tribune reported earlier this year when Bud Light first fell behind the Mexican Lager in sales. For the week ending May 28, store sales of Modelo Especial reached $333 million, representing a nearly 16% increase year-over-year. During the same time frame, Bud Light sales only amounted to $297 million.
For months, Bud Light continued to endure double-digit declines in sales, which showed no sign of improving. Even around the summer season and holidays such as the Fourth of July, known for heightened demand for beer, consumers turned to other brands, sending Bud Light sales further down.
Consulting firm Bump Williams Consulting has been at the forefront of analyzing the data behind Bud Light’s perpetual decline. The firm had speculated for months that Bud Light would invariably be dethroned from its long-held title as the top-selling beer in America, but it was only a matter of when.
CEO Bump Williams said, “While Bud Light loses week after week, Modelo Especial gains week after week, and now Modelo outsells Bud Light on a national basis across all trade channels combined.” He added, “If this continues, Modelo will surpass Bud Light for the year.”
Williams also said earlier this year, “If Bud Light continues its double-digit declines for the balance of 2023 and Modelo Especial continues to grow at 10% or greater for the balance of the calendar year, then it’s probable that Modelo Especial surpasses Bud Light as the No. 1 selling beer in America on a calendar basis.”
Earlier this summer, Williams updated his prediction, stating that Modelo could leap to first place sooner than anybody expected, especially considering the continuation of near 30 percent declines in weekly sales and an ever-decreasing market share. Bump Williams told the New York Post, “It’s going to happen a LOT sooner than anyone had ever thought. We have it surpassing Bud Light mid-August.”
It has been almost half a year since the backlash around the Dylan Mulvaney stunt unfolded, and there is no sign of improvement in Bud Light’s self-inflicted crisis. This has led many to speculate that the beer maker has done irreparable damage to its brand that has permanently driven away a significant chunk of domestic consumers.
However, the heir to the Anheuser-Busch fortune, Billy Busch, has indicated he would be open to buying back the company his ancestors successfully built to restore it to its former status. Busch said, “It’s absolutely a serious offer. My family worked so hard and dedicated so much to build this company over decades. It’s great American history… to see this iconic brand now going in the direction it’s going, it’s really a sad day.” It would be interesting to see if the company changing hands could bring consumers back to the once-great brand.
"*" indicates required fields